Professor Kishore Mahbubani

Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

National University of Singapore

Kishore.Mahbubani@mahbubani.net

 

Dear  Kishore,

 

I listened with interest to your interview with Phillip Adams on Late Night Live last week.

 

You stated that one-and-a-quarter billion people in Asia will rise to middle class levels of consumption by 2020, and that a similar situation will happen in Africa, and that it is expected that global poverty will be totally eliminated by 2030.  These are wonderful expectations, but the reality is that the process of achieving this will cause great difficulties.

 

These facts represent a massive increase in consumption in the next few decades.  This may be offset by a reduction in consumption in the West, but overall the level of consumption is likely to increase substantially.  This anticipated consumption is unavoidably tied to the use of resources and other outcomes of economic activity, so the use of resources, including the use of fossil fuel derived energy, and the creation of all forms of pollution, must be expected to rise massively in the coming decades.

 

A group of scientists called The Global Footprint Network (http://www.footprintnetwork.org) has calculated that humanity is already using one-and-a-half times the services and resources that the Earth is capable of sustainably providing for us. The increase in consumption that is implied by the growth in the consuming middle class that you describe will push that figure much higher.  This means that this outcome is simply not possible.  The likely outcome of this process is not an Earth devoid of poverty, but an Earth of economic, environmental, and social collapse, with universal poverty.

 

To avoid this, we need to develop a world society that equitably shares the level of economic activity that can occur sustainably, which is a level of economic activity that is lower than it is now.  Therefore, we need to develop an economic system that can contract to a sustainable size without destroying itself, and then remain at that size as a steady-state economy.

 

On the day following his interview with you, Phillip Adams interviewed Helena Norberg-Hodge, the founder and director of the International Society for Ecology and Culture (ISEC).  Phillip asked Helena for her opinion on the facts that you presented regarding the number of people that have newly entered, and that will enter, the consuming class.  Her understanding of the situation is similar to mine, and her response was that:

  • this will be at the expense of future generations
  • there is not sufficient resources for current consumption
  • environmentally this is impossible.

 

You can hear the interview at: here

 

I have placed an extended commentary on the subject of resource use and economic activity on a website that I am developing, which you may find interesting.  You can find it at: here

 

Regards,

 

 

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